Traders wager nearly $1 billion on an oil crash, the rupee jumps on RBI’s forex curbs, India slashes petrochemical import duties, pharma stocks tumble on US tariff fears, and bond yields rise for a 12th straight session – here are the top market moves from April 2, 2026.
Traders Pour $977 Million into Leveraged Bet That Oil Will Plunge
A group of oil traders made a massive contrarian wager, pouring $977 million into the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO) in March – the fund’s largest monthly inflow since its 2008 inception. SCO delivers twice the inverse of daily crude moves.
Despite the bet, the ETF was down 41% in March as Brent crude hit $119 per barrel before settling near $102. That remains far above February’s $72 level. The trade is a pure “war ends soon” bet, said Rocky Fishman of Asym 500. However, analysts warn that even a ceasefire may not bail out short traders, as the Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted roughly a fifth of global oil supply.
Bullish funds also drew record money: the United States Oil Fund (USO) attracted $700 million in March, while the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) pulled in $600 million – creating a sharply divided market.
Rupee Jumps as RBI Curbs Widen Onshore-NDF Spread
The Indian rupee climbed 1.4% at the open to 93.53 per dollar after the Reserve Bank of India barred banks from offering rupee non‑deliverable forwards (NDFs) to clients. The RBI also said companies cannot rebook cancelled forward contracts, targeting excessive speculation.
After the initial jump, the rupee traded choppily in the 93.14–93.64 range. Hedging costs in the onshore market were significantly lower than offshore: around 30 paise for one month versus 80 paise in the NDF market, highlighting the impact of the RBI’s measures. Analysts advised importers to hedge payments for up to three months, though the broader rupee outlook remains weak.
India Allows Zero Duty on Petrochemical Imports to Cushion Supply Crunch
India granted full customs duty exemption on select critical petrochemical products until June 30, 2026, citing the West Asia conflict and its impact on supply chains. The relief covers methanol, acetic acid, MEG, PTA, polymers (polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC), and engineering plastics like ABS and polycarbonates.
Downstream sectors including plastics, packaging, textiles, pharmaceuticals, automotive components, and chemicals are expected to benefit. However, domestic petrochemical producers may face pricing pressure from cheaper imports. The government also exempted ammonium nitrate from Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess for the same period.
Nifty Pharma Drops 3% as US Tariff Fears Hit Sun Pharma
The Nifty Pharma index declined 3.5% on Thursday, with Sun Pharmaceutical Industries falling 6% following reports that the Trump administration may impose tariffs of up to 100% on imported branded and patented medicines. The tariffs target drugmakers that have not entered into pricing agreements or aligned with the proposed TrumpRx.gov platform.
Several global pharma companies – including Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Roche, Novartis, Eli Lilly, J&J, Merck, Novo Nordisk, and GSK – have already secured waivers. Sun Pharma, with 31% of its consolidated revenue from US sales and a growing specialty portfolio, may need to pursue similar agreements or manufacturing investments in the US to avoid tariffs.
India Bonds Fall as War Keeps Oil High Ahead of Debt Sale
Indian government bonds fell on the first trading day of FY27, pushing the 10‑year yield toward a 12th straight rise. The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield rose about 4 basis points to 7.0734% – its highest since May 2024 – after President Trump said attacks on Iran would continue and Brent crude jumped over 6% to $107 per barrel.
The yield rose 37 basis points in March and 45 bps in FY26 despite 100 bps of RBI rate cuts. HSBC economists warned that oil above $100 could push inflation beyond 6% and trigger rate hikes. The RBI’s rate-setting panel meets next week, with a decision due April 8. Traders also pared positions ahead of a ₹290 billion bond auction, part of the ₹8.20 trillion first-half borrowing programme.
